Posted on Categories:Statistical inference, 统计代写, 统计代考, 统计推断

# 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|STAT360 Logical Theories of Probability

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## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|Keynes

However much one may disparage Keynes’ contributions to economic theory and subsequent world crises, his Treatise on Probability must be acknowledged as an impressive book. He began work on it as a dissertation in 1906 , when he was 23 ; though largely finished within 5 years, it was interrupted by other projects and was not published until 1921. ${ }^{1}$ At the time Keynes was writing, the germs of a frequency theory were in the air, but the “bug” was still waiting to be caught, perhaps until the positivist philosophy of science had sufficiently weakened classical resistance to a reductionist program. Thus, though Keynes devoted a chapter in his book to discussion of “the frequency theory of probability,” he really had only Venn to discuss, and so his book represents only the second attempt in history at an integrated and comprehensive theory of probability. Since Venn’s theory he moreover dismissed, he was really starting afresh.

Keynes placed probability squarely in its traditional framework, as a part of epistemology concerned with the justification and formalization of argument, like the logic of implication, which in his vision would become a special case. He took probability to be “the degree of rational belief” in a proposition warranted by a particular body of evidence.

## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|Jeffreys

Jeffreys (1939/1961) is among those who criticize Keynes for “an unwillingness to generalize the axioms [which] prevented [him] from obtaining many important results” (p. 25 n). Having started from an initial conception of probability quite similar to Keynes’, he went on to develop his theory much farther in the direction of mathematical statistics for scientific application.

He began, like Keynes, by embedding the subject of probability in the concerns of induction and logic generally. He was careful not to claim, either as his goal or his achievement, the justification of induction: “I do not consider justification necessary or possible; what the theory does is provide rules for consistency” (p. 424).
He lay down at the outset eight rules of theory construction (consistency, parsimony, etc.), of which the following are of particular interest:

1. Any rule given must be applicable in practice. A definition is useless unless the thing defined can be recognized in terms of the definition when it occurs. The existence of a thing or the estimate of a quantity must not involve an impossible experiment.
2. The theory must provide explicitly for the possibility that inferences made by it may turn out to be wrong. A law may contain adjustable parameters, which may be wrongly estimated, or the law itself may be afterwards found to need modification. It is a fact that revision of scientific laws has often been found necessary in order to take account of new information-the relativity and quantum theories providing conspicuous instances-and there is no conclusive reason to suppose that any of our present laws are final. But we do accept inductive inference in some sense; we have a certain amount of confidence that it will be right in any particular case, though this confidence does not amount to logical certainty. (1939/1961, pp. 8-9)

# 统计推断代写

## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|Jeffreys

Jeffreys (1939/1961) 是批评凯恩斯的人之一，他们批评凯恩斯“不愿概括 [这] 阻止 [他] 获得许多重要结果的公理”（第 25 页）。从与凯恩斯非常相似的初始概率概念开始，他继续将他的理论朝着科学应用的数理统计方向发展得更远。

1. 给出的任何规则都必须在实践中适用。定义是无用的，除非定义的事物在发生时能够根据定义被识别。事物的存在或数量的估计不得涉及不可能的实验。
2. 该理论必须明确提供由它做出的推论可能被证明是错误的可能性。法律可能包含可调整的参数，这些参数可能被错误地估计，或者事后发现法律本身需要修改。事实上，为了考虑新信息——相对论和量子理论提供了明显的例子——经常发现有必要修改科学定律，而且没有确凿的理由假设我们目前的任何定律都是最终的。但我们确实接受某种意义上的归纳推理。我们有一定的信心认为它在任何特定情况下都是正确的，尽管这种信心并不等于逻辑上的确定性。（1939/1961，第 8-9 页）

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。