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# 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|NWI-IMC012 Possibility theory

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## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Possibility theory

While probability theory has traditionally been used to handle uncertainty, in recent works (Klir 2002; Kikuchi and Chakroborty, 2006) use of possibility theory has been advocated, a theory originally pioneered by George Shackle. Kikuchi and Chakroborty (2006) note that the distinction between the two theories (possibility and probability) is rooted in the type of information they handle, and how it is formalized in a functional form, the distribution. The probability distribution represents much more specific (rigid) information than the possibility distribution. It is characterized by the concept of propensity, or actual occurrence of events. The additive property of the probability distribution clearly suggests consistency in the evidential support.

The possibility distribution, on the other hand, is founded on the concept of disposition, which implies “judgment” in the feeling of “possibility,” “achievability,” “acceptability,” and “capacity of the events to occur.” The possibility distribution covers a set of “possible ranges,” less precise information than the probability distribution. Hence, it is natural that how to express ignorance and uncertainty is an important part of the possibility theory framework.
The possibility and necessity measures of possibility theory constitute the upper and lower bounds of probability measure. Conceptually, this is because only the possible events can be probable (Smets 1998). With a better quality of information, the difference between possibility and necessity measures narrows and each converges to the probability measure (Kikuchi and Chakroborty, 2006).

The value of probability is interpreted as propensity of occurrence of an event in an objective sense; and hence, it clearly has application to risk and uncertainty associated with strategic decision-making to seek countermeasures in the face of a possible attack by an adversary or hostile country. The value of possibility and necessity, on the other hand, is associated with the sense of force or momentum to support a particular decision alternative. Its uses are suited to comparing (ordering) two situations, or understanding the degree of uncertainty or degree of support for an alternative.

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Early model development

A year before the $9 / 11$ attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, a simulation model, called Site Profiler, using Bayesian Networks, had predicted that the Pentagon was a likely terrorist target. On that occasion, no one took the mathematical prediction seriously enough to do anything about it. The rest, as you know it, is HIS-TO-RY! Site Profiler (Hudson, Ware, Blackmond-Laskey and Mahoney, 2000), was developed after the bombing of U.S. Air Force servicemen in Khobar Towers, Saudi Arabia, in June 1996, in which 20 persons were killed and 372 were wounded, and the August 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, where a total of 257 people were killed and more than 4,000 wounded.

The user of this system would enter information concerning a military installation’s assets through a question-and-answer interface very similar to that of a tax preparation software package (Site Profiler actually modeled its interface on the one used in Turbo Tax).

Site Profiler was distributed to all U.S. military installations around the globe to assist the site commanders by providing the necessary tools to assess terrorist risks, to manage those risks, and to develop antiterrorism plans.

This synopsis should tell us two (2) things. First, is that mathematics can be a very powerful tool for assessing terrorist risks. Second, is that we need to think very carefully before discounting the results that the math produces, no matter how far-fetched many of them may seem.

# 贝叶斯网络代写

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Early model development

Site Profiler 被分发到全球所有美国军事设施，通过提供必要的工具来评估恐怖分子风险、管理这些风险并制定反恐计划来协助站点指挥官。

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。