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# 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|ECON7058 Nominal and real income

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## 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|Nominal and real income

When examining changes over time in GNP or GDP it is necessary to allow for the effect of price changes. Nominal rises mean little if economies are subject to substantial inflationary pressures, as has often been the case in the Middle East. All countries in the region compile price indices, but the coverage of these is often restricted, which means their usefulness as gross national product deflators must be open to question. The most inflation prone economies, Turkey in the past and Iran today, construct fairly sophisticated retail and wholesale price indices. Israel, which had high rates of inflation until the late 1980 s, used its indices for wage indexing, though there were some moves to reduce the inflationary bias by moving away from this. ${ }^5$ Turkey’s inflation has fluctuated considerably, the rate rising from $38.8$ percent in 1987 to $75.4$ percent the following year before falling back to $63.8$ percent in $1990 .{ }^6$ Its average inflation rate over the 2004-2020 period was much lower at around 9 percent, compared to just over 2 percent for Israel, 17 percent for Iran and 14 percent in the case of Egypt.

The difficulty with such high and volatile rates of inflation is that different commodities can be affected in markedly dissimilar ways over even quite short periods of time. Prices of imported goods may increase with a lag following depreciation for example, but depreciation may be far from a smooth continuous process. Domestically produced goods may rise in price after wage settlements, but these are usually annual or biannual rather than monthly or quarterly, even in high inflation countries such as Iran. Given inflation differentials between commodities one problem which arises is which weights to assign to each component of the GDP deflator and when to weight. There are two standard methods, either the use of a base weighted index, the Laspeyre approach, or a current weighted index, the Paasche approach. The problem with the former is that the weights become outdated and irrelevant. In the latter case reindexing is necessary for each new period, but the problem is then consistency over time. In the Middle East it is the Laspeyre approach which is most commonly used, so the appropriateness of the weighting must be open to question.

There are also distribution issues that arise when deflating GNP. Price indices in the Middle East are based on urban rather than rural prices. As a result the impact of inflation on agriculture and the countryside may be over or underestimated. In practice the value of urban and manufacturing production is usually exaggerated by a higher average rate of inflation in cities and major towns. Even the decline in the share of agriculture in GNP may be partly attributed to pricing miscalculations.

## 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|Growth projections

The two major factors affecting growth of real GDP have been oil production policy and the Covid-19 pandemic. Faced with oil price falls Saudi Arabia cut production in 2019 , which partly worked as the oil price stabilised and the Kingdom returned to growth, albeit a very modest $0.3$ percent. The contraction of $6.5$ percent by Iran, the worst performing economy in the Middle East, was largely the result of sanctions by the United States. The scale of contraction in 2020 largely reflected the vulnerability of each economy to Covid-19 with the data for 2021 and 2025 representing a return to normality (see Table 3.2).

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