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# 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|PSYC3052 Building a decision support model

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## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Step I: Draw up an initial graphic model

First, think about what the managers are trying to achieve. They want to save the maximum number of lives with their given budget (or equivalently, minimize the costs per life saved). This suggests that it would be helpful to have a model that could predict the lives saved $/ £$ for different patterns of health care activity. So lives saved $/ £$ is your outcome variable.

Activity 2. I
Your first task is to identify the factors that may influence your outcome variable. Draw an influence diagram showing the relevant factors for one disease. You may find it helps to start with your outcome variable on the right of a sheet of paper and work ‘upstream’ to the left, first, identifying the direct or ‘proximal’ influences (intermediate variables such as numbers treated and effectiveness of treatment) and then moving on to the indirect or more ‘distal’ factors such as the severity of case mix in the population that in turn affect your proximal influences. (The higher the proportion of those with the disease in the population that have severe symptoms, the more severe the case mix and the greater the risk of death.) At this stage, include any factors you think might be influential. Simplification comes later. At the same time, do stick to the agenda. Your immediate concern is with saving the maximum number of lives with a given health care budget, not with preventing morbidity, promoting equity or community benefit.

Once you have formulated your model, identify the control variables, the factors that the managers can decide upon or influence relatively directly, and indicate them on your diagram.

The managers are concerned with saving lives, so you can define a ‘treatment impact factor’ as the difference in case fatality between treated and untreated cases. Of course, not all patients with a particular disease have equal potential to benefit.

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Step 2: Refine the graphic model

The next step is to refine your model in the light of what has been learned about the system and the managers’ concerns so far. After some discussion, the managers decide that they will not be able to change the treatment impact factors and costs of treatment in the short term, and that the best prospect for making improvements in output is by changing the mix of activity – i.e. treat more people who would benefit more, and fewer people who would benefit less. In this population there are only three diseases (A, B and C) and the question becomes how many people with each disease to treat. Decisions about which individual patients to treat are made by a large variety of people and involve many considerations, so this will be a matter of strategic direction rather than micro-management.

You may be able to leave factors out if they are expected to be unchanged over the time scale for which the model is meant to be valid. Remember that if exogenous variables are expected to vary, some attempt will have to be made to forecast how they might vary.

You may also need to add more detail, however. Now that the focus is more clearly on strategic management of the balance of numbers treated for each disease, you should make sure that all the relevant effects of changing this balance are included.

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