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# 经济代写|宏观经济学代考Macroeconomics代写|Two Stories About Inflationary Expectations

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## 经济代写|宏观经济学代考Macroeconomics代写|Two Stories About Inflationary Expectations

We are not yet ready to discuss the strategic interactions between the private sector and the government that determine inflationary expectations. However, we can study the outcomes under two different stories about inflationary expectations. These will help us to think about the government’s problem. First, we will assume that expectations are fixed, but that the private sector knows the government’s maximization problem. If this is the case, then the private sector will set expectations to a unique value such that the government chooses to set inflation at exactly the same value the private sector anticipated. Second, we will assume that expected inflation exactly equals actual inflation in all cases. The private sector has a crystal ball (or a spy) which informs it precisely of the government’s inflationary plan, no matter what the government picks.

Imagine for a moment that the private sector understands the government’s maximization problem and correctly anticipates inflation. That is, assume that inflationary expectations satisfy:
$$\pi^e=\pi^{\star}\left(\pi^e\right)$$
From Figure (19.2) below, we see that there is exactly one such expected inflation rate. Expanding produces:
$$\pi^e=\frac{\gamma}{1+\gamma^2}\left(u^{\star}+\gamma \pi^e\right)$$

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代考Macroeconomics代写|Ramsey Monetary Polic

This last example was the Ramsey problem. If the government can credibly commit to a particular inflation rate, the private sector responds by setting inflationary expectations to the announced inflation target. As a result, the government announces an inflation target of zero, and the result is the natural rate of unemployment. What are some commitment devices? By making the monetary authority completely independent of the fiscal authority it can be insulated from political pressure. Further, if the central banker has a reputation for being an unpleasant misanthrope who cares only about defeating inflation, the private sector can become convinced over time that in fact the central bank will set $\pi=0$ for all time.

Indeed, one reading of the deeply unpleasant recession in the early 1980 s is that the private sector had to be convinced of the new central banker’s commitment to low inflation. Paul Volcker arrived as Chairman of Federal Reserve Board at a time of high inflation and high unemployment. He announced that there would be low inflation in the future. The private sector did not adjust its expectations, but Volcker followed through on his promise. The result was the unusual case in which inflationary expectations exceeded actual inflation, that is $\pi^e>\pi$. As a result, unemployment shot above its natural rate in one of the deeper recessions of the century. After two years of this treatment, the private sector adjusted its expectations, convinced that Mr. Volcker was committed to low inflation.

# 宏观经济学代写

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代考Macroeconomics代写|Two Stories About Inflationary Expectations

$$\pi^e=\pi^{\star}\left(\pi^e\right)$$

$$\pi^e=\frac{\gamma}{1+\gamma^2}\left(u^{\star}+\gamma \pi^e\right)$$

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代考Macroeconomics代写|Ramsey Monetary Polic

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