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# 经济代写|劳动经济学代写Labor Economics代考|PARTICIPATION RATES: DEFINED AND MEASURED

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## 经济代写|劳动经济学代写Labor Economics代考|PARTICIPATION RATES: DEFINED AND MEASURED

The LFPR is determined by comparing the actual labor force with the potential labor force or what is sometimes called the “age-eligible population.”

In the United States, we consider the potential labor force or age-eligible population to be the entire population less $(a)$ young people under 16 years of age and (b) people who are institutionalized. Children under 16 are excluded on the assumption that schooling and child labor laws keep most of them out of the labor force. ${ }^6$ Furthermore, the segment of the population that is institutionalized-in penal or mental institutions, nursing homes, and so on-is also not available for labor market activities. ${ }^7$ The actual labor force consists of those people who are either $(a)$ employed or $(b)$ unemployed but actively seeking a job. ${ }^8$ Thus, in percentage form we can say that the labor force participation rate (LFPR) is
$$L F P R=\frac{\text { acutal labor force }}{\text { ptoential labor force }} \times 100$$
or
$$L F P R=\frac{\text { noninstitutionalized population } 16 \text { years of age or over in the labor force }}{\text { noninstitutionalized population }} \times 100$$

In January 2020, for example, the LFPR was
$$\frac{164,606,000}{259,502,000} \times 100=63.4 \%$$
Participation rates can be similarly determined for various subaggregates of the population, such as married women, African-American teenage females, and so forth.

## 经济代写|劳动经济学代写Labor Economics代考|SECULAR TREND OF PARTICIPATION RATES

Let’s now turn to the long run or secular trend of participation rates in the United States as portrayed in Figure 3.3. You should be forewarned that the factors affecting participation rates are varied and complex; some are economic variables, while others are of an institutional, legal, or attitudinal nature. Thus, although the Becker model is useful in explaining many important changes in participation rates, it cannot be realistically expected to provide a complete understanding of all the forces at work.

Figure 3.3 reveals that the aggregate participation rate has gradually drifted upward since World War II. In 1950 , about 60 percent of the age-eligible population were labor force participants. By 2019 , that figure had increased to about 63 percent, with most of the rise occurring in the 1970s and 1980s. In Figure 3.3, we also observe that the participation rate of males has declined steadily. Specifically, male participation rates declined from about 86 percent in 1950 to approximately 69 percent in 2019. Until 2000, concomitant increases in female participation rates more than offset this decline. Female participation rates rose from about 34 percent in 1950 to 60 percent in 1999, and have fallen to about 57 percent in 2019. It is important that we understand the major causal factors underlying these trends.‘

Figure 3.4 shows male participation rates by age groups. The message here is that the participation rates of older males have changed markedly. We find a large reduction in the participation rates for males 65 and older between 1950 and the mid-1980s but have risen since then. ${ }^9$ We also observe a sharp decline for males aged 55-64 between 1950 and the early 1990s, and a small rise since then.

A variety of factors have been cited to explain the decline and rebound in participation of older males. These include (a) rising real wages and earnings, (b) the changes in the availability of public and private pensions, $(c)$ increasing access to disability benefits, $(d)$ increasing education levels, and $(e)$ rising labor force participation of older wives.
1 Rising Real Wages and Earnings
1 实际工资和收入上升

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