Posted on Categories:决策论, 数学代写, 数据科学代写

## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

•最快12小时交付

•200+ 英语母语导师

•70分以下全额退款

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Outranking

Roy (1996) has suggested another approach to pairwise comparison based on what he calls ‘outranking relations’. He redefines dominance in a less demanding way than is conventional: Option A is said to outrank Option B if A is at least as good as B on enough criteria of enough importance and is not seriously worse than B in any respect. This method is more demanding than even swaps in that it requires ‘importance’ weights for the different criteria but generally requires fewer judgement-based comparisons.

The first test – enough criteria of enough importance – is assessed by a concordance index, which is simply the sum of the weights for the criteria on which A scores at least as highly as B.

The second test, which acts as a kind of veto on the concordance index in cases where an option performs particularly badly, even if only in one respect, is assessment by a discordance index. Calculation of this is more complex but if you are interested in finding out more, the formulae and some results can be seen in the file on your CD called Ch4MulCrit! on the spreadsheet called ‘Outranking’.

It is up to the decision makers to adjust the power of the analysis to discriminate, by choosing threshold values for the two indices. To see how this works, look at the spreadsheet. Assume the same set of criterion importance weights as in Activity $4.5$ (Table 4.5) and the shortlist of options in Table 4.6. Choose the threshold values $0.85$ and $0.80$ for the concordance and discordance indexes, in cells S6 and S18 respectively. It can be seen from the range $A B 30: A B 36$ in the spreadsheet that Option 1 is again eliminated following comparison with Option 10. However, Option 17 is also eliminated, because it ranks so poorly on staff acceptability. Lowering the discordance threshold to $0.70$ leads to Option 11 being eliminated by Option 10, and with concordance threshold at $0.70$, Option 7 becomes dominated by Option 18. At this stage only Options 6, 10 and 18 remain.

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|The Analytical Hierarchy Process: importance weights based on pairwise preferences

The relative transparency of pairwise comparisons of options suggests that decision makers may find it easier to derive importance weights for criteria from pairwise comparisons of criteria than direct judgements. One method of doing this is part of a broader approach to multiple criteria decision making called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty 1980). Similar methods may be used for determining option scores.

This involves an agreed scale for the comparison of pairs of criteria (criterion A and criterion B, say). Commonly a 9-point scale is used. The odd-numbered scale points are labelled, with the values of the interspersed even-numbered points left implicit:
$1=$ A and B equally preferred (i.e. to be given equal weight).
$3=$ A moderately preferred to $B$.
$5=$ A strongly preferred.
$7=$ A very strongly preferred.
$9=$ A extremely strongly preferred.

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写管理科学决策模型代考|Outranking

Roy(1996)提出了另一种基于他所谓的“优先关系”的成对比较方法。他以一种比传统方法要求更低的方式重新定义了支配地位:如果a在足够多的、足够重要的标准上至少与B一样好，并且在任何方面都不严重逊于B，那么就可以说a优于B。这种方法比交换方法要求更高，因为它需要不同标准的“重要性”权重，但通常需要较少的基于判断的比较

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写管理科学决策模型代考|层次分析法:基于两两偏好的重要性权重

$1=$ A和B同样优先(即给予相同的权重)。
$3=$比较喜欢$B$ .
$5=$非常喜欢。
$7=$强烈推荐。
$9=$强烈推荐

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

Posted on Categories:决策论, 数学代写, 数据科学代写

## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

•最快12小时交付

•200+ 英语母语导师

•70分以下全额退款

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Step I: Draw up an initial graphic model

First, think about what the managers are trying to achieve. They want to save the maximum number of lives with their given budget (or equivalently, minimize the costs per life saved). This suggests that it would be helpful to have a model that could predict the lives saved $/ £$ for different patterns of health care activity. So lives saved $/ £$ is your outcome variable.

Activity 2. I
Your first task is to identify the factors that may influence your outcome variable. Draw an influence diagram showing the relevant factors for one disease. You may find it helps to start with your outcome variable on the right of a sheet of paper and work ‘upstream’ to the left, first, identifying the direct or ‘proximal’ influences (intermediate variables such as numbers treated and effectiveness of treatment) and then moving on to the indirect or more ‘distal’ factors such as the severity of case mix in the population that in turn affect your proximal influences. (The higher the proportion of those with the disease in the population that have severe symptoms, the more severe the case mix and the greater the risk of death.) At this stage, include any factors you think might be influential. Simplification comes later. At the same time, do stick to the agenda. Your immediate concern is with saving the maximum number of lives with a given health care budget, not with preventing morbidity, promoting equity or community benefit.

Once you have formulated your model, identify the control variables, the factors that the managers can decide upon or influence relatively directly, and indicate them on your diagram.

The managers are concerned with saving lives, so you can define a ‘treatment impact factor’ as the difference in case fatality between treated and untreated cases. Of course, not all patients with a particular disease have equal potential to benefit.

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Step 2: Refine the graphic model

The next step is to refine your model in the light of what has been learned about the system and the managers’ concerns so far. After some discussion, the managers decide that they will not be able to change the treatment impact factors and costs of treatment in the short term, and that the best prospect for making improvements in output is by changing the mix of activity – i.e. treat more people who would benefit more, and fewer people who would benefit less. In this population there are only three diseases (A, B and C) and the question becomes how many people with each disease to treat. Decisions about which individual patients to treat are made by a large variety of people and involve many considerations, so this will be a matter of strategic direction rather than micro-management.

You may be able to leave factors out if they are expected to be unchanged over the time scale for which the model is meant to be valid. Remember that if exogenous variables are expected to vary, some attempt will have to be made to forecast how they might vary.

You may also need to add more detail, however. Now that the focus is more clearly on strategic management of the balance of numbers treated for each disease, you should make sure that all the relevant effects of changing this balance are included.

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

Posted on Categories:决策论, 数学代写, 数据科学代写

## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

•最快12小时交付

•200+ 英语母语导师

•70分以下全额退款

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|The role of models

Overview
In this book you will learn about a range of approaches to model building and decision support. The aim of this chapter is to introduce the main underlying concepts. You start by reading about types of rationality and what makes management decision making in health care difficult. You are then introduced to some of the different types of models that can be used to support and inform decision making processes, and read about a particular example of model building in health services. After this you learn about some of the components of a decision support model, and what makes a good model.
Learning objectives
By the end of this chapter, you will be better able to:

• describe some of the characteristics of decision making in health care systems
• explain what is meant by a ‘model’ in the context of decision making, and identify the common features of such models
• describe some of the kinds of problem that health services models can help with
• understand the basic model-building process, what makes a good model, and some of the criticisms of using them to inform decision making

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|Introduction

Why is management decision making in health care difficult? To answer this question, you need to think about a more fundamental question: what makes a management decision a ‘good’ one? More broadly, how can you tell whether a decision made on behalf of an organization or group is a ‘good’ one? One obvious test is whether the decision can be justified: whether there are good reasons for it. This has led to the widespread acceptance of the idea that decisions should be made ‘rationally’. But what does this actually mean? There are large and controversial economic, management, philosophical and psychological literatures on this that can only be touched on here.
One clear but demanding version of rationality requires:
1 an explicit set of options, or possible courses of action;
2 information that allows prediction of the outcomes of choosing each option; and
3 an explicit criterion for choosing the preferred set of outcomes, which is determined by the decision maker’s goals and objectives.

The rational choice is the option that logic and the laws of probability suggest will lead to the best or most preferred set of outcomes. This, which Herbert Simon (1976) described as substantive rationality, is the basis for much economic theory (which assumes that ‘economic man’ actually is rational in this sense) and analysis (which assumes that decision makers should be). Indeed, substantive rationality lies behind many of the methods described in this book, particularly Decision Analysis in Chapter 6, where the aim is to maximize ‘subjective expected utility’. However, Simon argued that in many practical situations decision makers cannot be sure of identifying the best option. Obtaining the necessary information may be impossible – or too costly, time-consuming, risky or unethical. Even if decision makers have the information, they may not have the capacity to process it; and even if they have the capacity, their preferences may change over time. Also while this approach, if feasible, leads to ‘optimal’ outcomes for individuals in a competitive context, it is not obvious what to do in a more collaborative world or if there are several decision makers with different preferences. Thus, the best that most decision makers can do is work with ‘bounded’ rationality, bounded that is by the complexity of the world they live in and their limited capacities for analysing it.

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写Management Science Models for Decision Making代考|模型的作用

• 描述了医疗保健系统中决策的一些特征
• 解释了在决策环境中“模型”的含义，并确定了这些模型的共同特征
• 描述了卫生服务模型可以帮助解决的一些类型的问题
• 理解了基本的模型构建过程，什么是一个好的模型，以及使用它们来指导决策的一些批评

## 管理科学代写|决策论代写管理科学决策模型代考|简介

.

3是选择首选结果集的明确标准，这是由决策者的目标和目的决定的

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。