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## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Possibility theory

While probability theory has traditionally been used to handle uncertainty, in recent works (Klir 2002; Kikuchi and Chakroborty, 2006) use of possibility theory has been advocated, a theory originally pioneered by George Shackle. Kikuchi and Chakroborty (2006) note that the distinction between the two theories (possibility and probability) is rooted in the type of information they handle, and how it is formalized in a functional form, the distribution. The probability distribution represents much more specific (rigid) information than the possibility distribution. It is characterized by the concept of propensity, or actual occurrence of events. The additive property of the probability distribution clearly suggests consistency in the evidential support.

The possibility distribution, on the other hand, is founded on the concept of disposition, which implies “judgment” in the feeling of “possibility,” “achievability,” “acceptability,” and “capacity of the events to occur.” The possibility distribution covers a set of “possible ranges,” less precise information than the probability distribution. Hence, it is natural that how to express ignorance and uncertainty is an important part of the possibility theory framework.
The possibility and necessity measures of possibility theory constitute the upper and lower bounds of probability measure. Conceptually, this is because only the possible events can be probable (Smets 1998). With a better quality of information, the difference between possibility and necessity measures narrows and each converges to the probability measure (Kikuchi and Chakroborty, 2006).

The value of probability is interpreted as propensity of occurrence of an event in an objective sense; and hence, it clearly has application to risk and uncertainty associated with strategic decision-making to seek countermeasures in the face of a possible attack by an adversary or hostile country. The value of possibility and necessity, on the other hand, is associated with the sense of force or momentum to support a particular decision alternative. Its uses are suited to comparing (ordering) two situations, or understanding the degree of uncertainty or degree of support for an alternative.

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Early model development

A year before the $9 / 11$ attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, a simulation model, called Site Profiler, using Bayesian Networks, had predicted that the Pentagon was a likely terrorist target. On that occasion, no one took the mathematical prediction seriously enough to do anything about it. The rest, as you know it, is HIS-TO-RY! Site Profiler (Hudson, Ware, Blackmond-Laskey and Mahoney, 2000), was developed after the bombing of U.S. Air Force servicemen in Khobar Towers, Saudi Arabia, in June 1996, in which 20 persons were killed and 372 were wounded, and the August 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya, where a total of 257 people were killed and more than 4,000 wounded.

The user of this system would enter information concerning a military installation’s assets through a question-and-answer interface very similar to that of a tax preparation software package (Site Profiler actually modeled its interface on the one used in Turbo Tax).

Site Profiler was distributed to all U.S. military installations around the globe to assist the site commanders by providing the necessary tools to assess terrorist risks, to manage those risks, and to develop antiterrorism plans.

This synopsis should tell us two (2) things. First, is that mathematics can be a very powerful tool for assessing terrorist risks. Second, is that we need to think very carefully before discounting the results that the math produces, no matter how far-fetched many of them may seem.

# 贝叶斯网络代写

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Early model development

Site Profiler 被分发到全球所有美国军事设施，通过提供必要的工具来评估恐怖分子风险、管理这些风险并制定反恐计划来协助站点指挥官。

avatest.org 为您提供可靠及专业的论文代写服务以便帮助您完成您学术上的需求，让您重新掌握您的人生。我们将尽力给您提供完美的论文，并且保证质量以及准时交稿。除了承诺的奉献精神，我们的专业写手、研究人员和校对员都经过非常严格的招聘流程。所有写手都必须证明自己的分析和沟通能力以及英文水平，并通过由我们的资深研究人员和校对员组织的面试。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

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## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

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## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Literature review

The word “resilience” is used in a variety of contexts and has been debated significantly since 1970. However, in light of terrorism threats and some natural disasters in the recent past, it is being studied in terms of the urban infrastructure. Resilient has also been connected with recovery capacity; for example, Primm (1984) suggested that it can be measured at the speed at which a system returns to its original state following an interruption.

Many approaches have been used to model infrastructure interaction including for example, agent-based models (Dudenhoeffer 2006), input-output models (Setola 2009), neural networks (Min and Duenas-Osorio, 2009) and scalable multi-graph methods (Svendsen and Wolthusen, 2007). As well as differing in their general approach, these methods differ widely in the type, size and number of networks being considered. The approaches can be combined in a collective model where different infrastructure networks are encompassed in a single model structure or a distributed type where each network is modeled separately and the results are passed between the models according to some mediating mechanism.

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Resiliency and interdependency of critical urban infrastructure duringextreme events

The resiliency and interdependency of critical urban transportation infrastructure needs to be carefully explored during extreme events. The impacts of a particular hazard may be indirect because of the weaknesses in infrastructure systems. For example, in the event of earthquake, few properties are destroyed by the actual shaking but many are destroyed by fire. This example illustrates how an independent system of linked relationships connects a hazard event with its ultimate outcome (Little 2002). When analyzed separately, the impact of one disrupted infrastructure system can be fairly estimated; however, interdependence introduces an added layer of uncertainty. The nature of interdependence can be a cascading failure, where a disruption of one infrastructure causes disruption of another; escalating failure, where a disrupted infrastructure prohibits the recovery of another infrastructure that failed earlier; and common cause failure, where a disrupted infrastructure system fails as a result of a common cause such as a natural disaster.

Power systems are perhaps the most important component of critical infrastructure because other systems require a continuous flow of energy to operate. Communications and information infrastructure includes linkages which move data from point to point. This also is critical during emergencies. Transportation is an important component of the urban infrastructure which facilitates the flow of goods in and out of an urban area. Water and Wastewater systems in the cities are old and their upgrades are essential.

# 贝叶斯网络代写

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Literature review

“复原力”这个词用于多种情况，自 1970 年以来一直备受争议。然而，鉴于最近的恐怖主义威胁和一些自然灾害，正在从城市基础设施的角度对其进行研究。弹性也与恢复能力有关；例如，Primm (1984) 建议可以以系统在中断后返回其原始状态的速度来测量它。

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Resiliency and interdependency of critical urban infrastructure duringextreme events

avatest.org 为您提供可靠及专业的论文代写服务以便帮助您完成您学术上的需求，让您重新掌握您的人生。我们将尽力给您提供完美的论文，并且保证质量以及准时交稿。除了承诺的奉献精神，我们的专业写手、研究人员和校对员都经过非常严格的招聘流程。所有写手都必须证明自己的分析和沟通能力以及英文水平，并通过由我们的资深研究人员和校对员组织的面试。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

Posted on Categories:Bayesian network, 统计代写, 统计代考, 贝叶斯网络

## avatest™帮您通过考试

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## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Calculate the euclidean distance

In order to have some information about the agreement in each subset of experts, we first calculate a distance between pairs of preferences (scoring vector). Since the arithmetic mean minimizes the sum of distances to individual values with respect to the Euclidean metric, it seems reasonable to use this metric for measuring the distance among scoring vectors. Let $\left(\mathrm{S}\left(\mathrm{x}{1}\right), \ldots, \mathrm{S}\left(\mathrm{x}{\mathrm{n}}\right)\right)$ and $\left(\mathrm{S}^{\prime}\left(\mathrm{x}{1}\right), \ldots, \mathrm{S}^{\prime}\left(\mathrm{x}{\mathrm{n}}\right)\right)$ be two individual or collective scoring vectors. The distance between these vectors by means of the Euclidean metric is derived by (1).
$$d\left(s, s^{\prime}\right)=\sqrt{\sum_{u=1}^{n}\left(s\left(x_{u}\right)-S^{\prime}\left(x_{u}\right)\right)^{2}}$$

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Calculate the overall agreement measure

We calculate a specific agreement measure which is based on the distances among individual and collective scoring vectors in each subset of experts. The overall agreement measure is derived by (2).
$$M\left(C_{r} I\right)=1-\frac{\sum_{V_{i} \in I} d\left(S_{i}, S\right)}{|I| S_{1} \sqrt{n}}$$
We note that $S_{1} \sqrt{n}$ is the maximum distance among scoring vectors, clearly between $\left(S\left(x_{1}\right), \ldots, S\left(x_{n}\right)\right)=\left(s_{1}, \ldots, S_{1}\right)$ and $\left(S^{\prime}\left(x_{1}\right), \ldots, S^{\prime}\left(x_{n}\right)\right)=(0, \ldots, 0) ; d\left(S, S^{\prime}\right)=S_{1} \sqrt{n}$. $M(C, I)$ is equal to 0 if $I=\phi$. Then, $M(C, I) \in[0,1]$, for every $(C, I) \in C \times P(V)$. It is easy to see that the overall agreement measure satisfies the other axioms of (Bosch, 2005), Anonymity and Neutrality.

# 贝叶斯网络代写

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Calculate the euclidean distance

$$d\left(s, s^{\prime}\right)=\sqrt{\sum_{u=1}^{n}\left(s\left(x_{u}\right)-S^{\prime}\left(x_{u}\right)\right)^{2}}$$

## 统计代写|贝叶斯网络代考Bayesian network代写|Calculate the overall agreement measure

$$M\left(C_{r} I\right)=1-\frac{\sum_{V_{i} \in I} d\left(S_{i}, S\right)}{|I| S_{1} \sqrt{n}}$$

avatest.org 为您提供可靠及专业的论文代写服务以便帮助您完成您学术上的需求，让您重新掌握您的人生。我们将尽力给您提供完美的论文，并且保证质量以及准时交稿。除了承诺的奉献精神，我们的专业写手、研究人员和校对员都经过非常严格的招聘流程。所有写手都必须证明自己的分析和沟通能力以及英文水平，并通过由我们的资深研究人员和校对员组织的面试。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。