Posted on Categories:Risk Theory, 金融代写, 风险理论

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## 金融代写|风险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Paradoxes of Rational Choice Theory

Till Grüne-Yanoff’s chapter gives an overview of some of the many well-known paradoxes that have played an important role in the development of decision theory. The very first such paradox was the St Petersburg paradox, formulated by the Swiss mathematician Daniel Bernoulli (1700-1782), who worked in St Petersburg for a couple of years at the beginning of the eighteenth century. The St Petersburg paradox, which is still being discussed by decision theorists, is derived from a game known as the St Petersburg game: A fair coin is tossed until it lands heads up. The player then wins $2^n$ dollars, where $n$ is the number of times the coin was tossed. Hence, if the coin lands heads up in the first toss, the player wins 2 dollars, but if it lands heads up on, say, the fourth toss, the player wins $2^4=2 \cdot 2 \cdot 2 \cdot 2=16$ dollars. How much should a rational person be willing to pay for getting the opportunity to play this game? Clearly, the expected monetary payoff is infinite, because $\frac{1}{2} \cdot 2+\frac{1}{4} \cdot 4+\frac{1}{8} \cdot 8+\ldots=1+1+1+\ldots=$ $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n \cdot 2^n=\infty$. However, to pay, say, a million dollars for playing a game in which one is very likely to win just 2, 4, or 8 dollars seems absurd. As Grüne-Yanoff points out, it is not as easy to resolve this and other paradoxes as many people have thought.

## 金融代写|风险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Multi-Attribute Approaches to Risk

Paul Weirich considers the special type of situation that arises if many different features of a decision are considered to be relevant by the decision maker. In a single-attribute approach to decision theory, all possible outcomes are compared on one and the same scale. Imagine, for instance, that you are about to buy a new car. Some cars are more expensive than others, but they are also safer. How many dollars is it worth to pay for extra safety? The multi-attribute approach attempts to avoid the idea that money and human welfare are somehow directly commensurable by giving up the assumption that all outcomes have to be compared on a common scale. In a multi-attribute approach, each type of attribute is measured in the unit the decision maker considers to be most suitable for the attribute in question. Money is typically the right unit to use for measuring financial costs, whereas other measures are required for measuring car safety.

## 金融代写|逆险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Paradoxes of Rational Choice Theory

Till Grüne-Yanoff 的章节概述了许多众所周知的悖论，这些悖论在决策理论的发展中发挥了重要作用。第一个这样的悖论是由瑞 士数学家丹尼尔伯努利 (Daniel Bernoulli，1700-1782 年) 提出的圣彼得堡悖论，他于 18 世纪初在圣彼得堡工作了几年。决策 元，在哪里 $n$ 是投㚘硬币的次数。因此，如果硬币在第一次投烪中正面朝上，则玩家嬴 2 美元，但如果硬币正面朝上，例如第四 次，则玩家获胜 $2^4=2 \cdot 2 \cdot 2 \cdot 2=16$ 美元。一个理性的人应该原意为获得玩这个游戏的机会付出多少? 显然，预期的货币收益 是无限的，因为 $\frac{1}{2} \cdot 2+\frac{1}{4} \cdot 4+\frac{1}{8} \cdot 8+\ldots=1+1+1+\ldots=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n \cdot 2^n=\infty$. 然而，比如说，花一百万美元去 玩一个很可能只赢 2、4 或 8 美元的游戏，这似乎是荒谬的。正如 Grüne-Yanoff 指出的那样，解决这个和其他悖论并不像许多 人想象的那么容易。

## 金融代写|风险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Multi-Attribute Approaches to Risk

Paul Weirich 考虑了如果决策的许多不同特征被夬策者认为相关时出现的特殊类型的情况。在决策理论的单一属性方法中，所有 可能的结果都在一个相同的尺度上进行比较。例如，想彖一下你要买一辆新车。有些汽车比其他汽车更贵，但它们也更安全。为额 外的安全支付多少美元? 多属性方法试图通过放弃所有结果都必须在一个共同尺度上进行比较的假设来避免金钱和人类福利以某种 方式直接可比的想法。在多属性方法中，每种类型的属性都以决策者认为最适合所讨论属性的单位来䡓量。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

Posted on Categories:Risk Theory, 金融代写, 风险理论

## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

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## 金融代写|风险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Risk Assessment

Risk is the prospect of an unfavorable development in chancy circumstances and exists whenever there the possibility that things might not go well. Any sort of lossproducing prospect-be its concern with money, life, health, time, or other resources-represents a risk. However to compare risks we again need to take recourse to some common measure of “utility” in order to realize cross-typological comparability. The magnitude of the risk depends on the severity or size of the negativity at issue. The threat of the risk depends on the likelihood of its realization.
There are both risks we knowingly undertake and risks we are totally unaware of, risks we accept and risks we unwittingly run. (When we drive our car cross-town we run and accept the risk of accident; when a burglar who is recently released from prison prowls our neighborhood, we are at risk of a visit from him even if blissfully ignorant of it.) Being at risk is thus a ubiquitous condition. Inanimate objects can be at risk, as with a dam when there is excess rainfall. And conscious beings can be at risk without the least awareness of it.

In relation to risk one can be either active or passive. With action one takes a risk, with passive one is at risk. Either way here is basically the same sort of situation, one which there are alternatives (and casually differentially probable) outcomes which have a negative or positive effect upon one’s interest. And insofar as one can enter into chancy situations from without, so to speak, how should different positivities and negativities be weighed? Such issues of priority do not emerge from calculation, seeing that they are already needed to make it possible.

## 金融代写|风险理论代写Risk Theory代考|Comparing Chancy Situations via Risk and Promise

There is no one, single, uniform measure for assessing the acceptability of optimal chancy situations. The issue is too complex and many-sided.

The threat of a chancy situation as reflected in its risk factors, is only part of its acceptability evaluation. For a more comprehensive view we must contrast this risk with its promise, and thus take account not only of its risk parameters, but also of its promise parameters as well-something that expectation addresses but does not settle. Thus compare the following four alternative yield distributions for chancy situations with four equiprobable (dot-indicated) outcomes, with $E$ indicating the four correlative expectations:

Here I’s expectation is less than II’s, which however is far more risky: its negative expectation is small, but so also is its positive expectation. IV has a larger negative expectation even though a positive outcome is far more probable. Risk makes all the difference. And while catastrophic risks must of necessity be avoided, the appropriate way of addressing normal risks pivots on the crucial issue of compensating offsetting promise. Clearly in Case III and arguably in others-though certainly not case IV-is this a telling consideration.

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

Posted on Categories:Risk Theory, 金融代写, 风险理论

## avatest™帮您通过考试

avatest™的各个学科专家已帮了学生顺利通过达上千场考试。我们保证您快速准时完成各时长和类型的考试，包括in class、take home、online、proctor。写手整理各样的资源来或按照您学校的资料教您，创造模拟试题，提供所有的问题例子，以保证您在真实考试中取得的通过率是85%以上。如果您有即将到来的每周、季考、期中或期末考试，我们都能帮助您！

•最快12小时交付

•200+ 英语母语导师

•70分以下全额退款

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。