Posted on Categories:Statistical inference, 统计代写, 统计代考, 统计推断

# 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|ST502 Ramsey

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## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|Ramsey

Ramsey, a brilliant student of Russell and Wittgenstein, could fairly be called the Galois of probability theory: He died in 1930, of jaundice, ${ }^{10}$ at the age of 26 . His work was published posthumously as a collection of essays entitled The Foundations of Mathematics (1931). Ramsey, like Borel, got started on subjectivism from critically contemplating Keynes’ theory; Keynes himself, as was noted earlier, appears ultimately to have been persuaded that Ramsey was on the right track. Ramsey, for his part, questioned whether there is, in fact, any such thing as Keynes’ “probability relations”:
All we appear to know about them are certain general propositions, the laws of addition and multiplication; it is as if everyone knew the laws of geometry but no one could tell whether any given object were round or square; and I find it hard to imagine how so large a body of general knowledge can be combined with so slender a stock of particular facts. $(1931$, p. 162)

## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|De Finetti

The personalization of probability was carried through most thoroughly by de Finetti, who saw probability as arising from uncertainty, whatever its source. Hence a string of digits in the decimal expansion of $\pi$-say, the 2001st to the 3000 thqualifies, as well as a string of digits in a random number table, as an object of probability theory. Indeed “random,” in his theory, means “unknown to You,” regardless of whether the event is determined or known to anyone else. It is a consequence of de Finetti’s definition that a probability cannot be unknown: Probability characterizes uncertainty, and there is no second-order uncertainty about uncertainty. He compares the concept of unknown probability with “thinking that in a statistical survey it makes sense to indicate, in addition to those whose sex is unknown, those for whom one does not even know ‘whether the sex is unknown or not'” (de Finetti, 1974, p. 84).

In using betting to measure probabilities, de Finetti is of course involved in the comparisons of expectations. Indeed, like Borel (1924), he introduces probability and expectation through the explicitly monetary concept of prices. If $X$ is a “random gain,”
We might ask an individual, e.g. You, to specify the certain gain which is considered equivalent to $X$. This we might call the price (for You) of $X$ (we denote it by $P(X)$ ) in the sense that, on your scale of preference, the random gain $X$ is, or is not, preferred to a certain gain $x$ according as $x$ is less than or greater than $P(x)$. $(1974$, p. 73 )

# 统计推断代写

## 统计代写|统计推断代考Statistical Inference代写|De Finetti

de Finetti 对概率的个性化进行得最为彻底，他认为概率源于不确定性，无论其来源如何。因此，十进制扩展中的一串数字圆周率- 比如说，第 2001 到第 3000 以及随机数表中的一串数字都可以作为概率论的对象。事实上，在他的理论中，“随机”意味着“你不知道”，无论该事件是确定的还是其他人知道的。概率不可能是未知的，这是德菲内蒂定义的结果：概率表征不确定性，并且不存在关于不确定性的二阶不确定性。他将未知概率的概念与“认为在统计调查中，除了那些不知道性别的人之外，指出那些甚至不知道‘性别是否未知’的人是有意义的”（de菲内蒂，1974 年，第 84 页）。

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。